Original research on prediction market microstructure, trader behavior, and forecasting. Papers and interactive tools, built from real market data.
Introducing the Recall Fidelity Score and showing how the precision of an LLM's recall of historical events relates to its forecasting accuracy.
An empirical analysis of 1.9M+ Polymarket traders, identifying the behavioral traits (specialization, timing, and trade frequency) that distinguish the platform's highest-impact participants.
Mapping the semantic landscape of 400,000+ Polymarket prediction markets by topic and trading volume.
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