Original research on prediction market microstructure, trader behavior, and forecasting. Papers and interactive tools, built from real market data.
An empirical analysis of 1.9M+ Polymarket traders, identifying the behavioral traits (specialization, timing, and trade frequency) that distinguish the platform's highest-impact participants.
Mapping the semantic landscape of 400,000+ Polymarket prediction markets by topic and trading volume.
We welcome collaboration with UChicago faculty, researchers at other institutions, and industry practitioners. Reach out on X or through our sponsor contacts.